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The North American Nature Photography Association has just released their spring issue of Currents Magazine. They were very kind to interview me about my ongoing work with Polar Bears International and the Arctic Documentary Project (ADP).

This is the lead image for the story that starts on page 18. Click on the photo to be taken directly to the MagCloud digital edition.
You can download a copy electronically as well as purchase a high quality printed version if you choose. The presentation is by MagCloud, an HP company that I’m happy to say is offering published works in a very environmentally friendly way. I’m a firm believer that all books and magazines should be electronic with an option for people to pay for a hard copy if they want. If printed on an as-needed basis, fewer trees are harvested for publications that nobody may has any interest in. There are a host of other great articles in this issue, so don’t just turn to page 18 for my piece. Check it all out and if you enjoy the outdoors and photography, give some thought to signing up and becoming a member of this great organization. Please share with this with your friends and loved ones. Thanks for your support.
Posted in Conservation & Education, Inspiration, Mentoring, News Worthy, The Arctic Documentary Project | No Comments »
Dr. Steven Amstrup, senior scientist for Polar Bears International, and I shared the PBI conservation message with friends of the Gasparilla Island Conservation and Improvement Association this past week. Dr. Amstrup came to Boca Grande, Florida to talk about the changes taking place in the arctic. I shared a series of images from the Arctic Documentary Project and Steve followed up with scientific facts that were delivered in a non-confrontational, matter-of-fact way which garnered a very positive response from the 75-100 person crowd. See more photos of the event. Read the article by the Boca Beacon newspaper.

Steve Amstrup, Daniel Cox and Bob Elliott at the Boca Grande Community Center for Dan and Steve’s presentation on the ADP and PBI. The multi-media event was in association with Gasparilla Island Conservation & Improvement Association.
Steve is really the perfect person to be delivering this message. He’s such a personable guy, with a wealth of first-hand knowledge on the subject of climate change. He originally didn’t believe in the changes himself but was convinced after studying the science that was being produced by other world-class experts that he had a high degree of respect for. His delivery is straight-forward, non-judgemental and easy to understand. He won many converts the night of our talk at the Boca Grande Community Center.
Posted in Conservation & Education, Inspiration, News Worthy, The Arctic Documentary Project | No Comments »
Our first morning at Cape Churchill 2012 brings back memories of Cape adventures from the 80s and 90s. The wind howled the entire day. Temperatures in the buggy were cold enough to freeze my water bottle sitting on the seat between my camera bag and the metal wall. For those shooting without gloves, frostbite attacked the flesh, proving to be painful for photographers with unprotected hands. Nearly the entire day I was wrapped in my Canada Goose Snow Mantra parka. It was finally as frigid as I remembered and it felt fantastic.
This is young polar bear trying to nap in the howling wind. This video is not up to my desired professional standards due to the shaking of the camera, so it will never make it into any film project I ever do, however, by itself it’s interesting to see the conditions these animals endure on a daily basis and I thought it might be fascinating to some. They have tough lives. Find out how you can make their lives easier by visiting www.polarbearsinternationa
Click on this link to view a gallery of additional images.
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Ian Stirling and Andy Derocher, two polar bear biologists that have worked closely with Polar Bears International, were recently interviewed by the Canadian newspaper Edmonton Journal. In the article a Nunavut Inuit organization claims to have done studies refuting current polar bear numbers that were compiled by Stirling and Derocher as well as biologists outside the Nunavut community. The Nunavut organization is pushing for higher harvest numbers of polar bears in their province. The article states that “Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. said preliminary results from the Nunavut government survey contradict previous reports by Stirling, Derocher and other scientists who have been tracking polar bears in the region for the past 40 years. They say it also vindicates Inuit hunters who insist there are more bears than ever.”
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It’s amazing what you can find on the internet. I was recently doing a search for some of my work, trying to track down a particular web interview I had done and instead ran across a video that was shot a couple of years ago at PhotoExpo Plus in New York. At the time I was working with Hewlett Packard, helping them showcase their new Z3200 printer. They in turn produced a number of large format prints showing the quality the Z3200 produced and presented the large format images a gallery like setting at this annual trade show in New York. Amazingly my interview is as appropriate today as it was two years ago. The main difference is that the Arctic Documentary Project has officially launched but the message is the same. Thought I would share this with all of you.
If you’re interested in seeing the official Arctic Documentary Project booklet that describes it all in words and pictures you can click on the image below and be taken to an online version of the official publication.
Posted in Conservation & Education, The Arctic Documentary Project | No Comments »
I recently posted the image below on our Natural Exposures Facebook Fan Page of my Godson Colter helping me rig one of the newest additions to my image capture arsenal. He was working to connect my Apple iPad and iPhone to a MiniHD, video camera known as the ContourGPS so my two Apple devices could each be used as a wireless viewfinder. A comment that came in on the Facebook page made me realize many of you may not be familiar with this technology and why it’s so compelling for capturing unique moving images.
The Contour GPS is just one of several options out there that give you a small, HD quality, video capture devise that is super simple, can be placed almost anywhere, and produces stunning video images. The two most popular options include the Contour series of cameras and the GoPro series. Another option has shown up recently made by Delkin called the WingMan but it doesn’t get quite as good of reviews as the Contour or the GoPro.
I’m not going to get into the details of each camera since everybody has their own opinion as to what is important to them. The links I’ve provided will help you make a decision on what features YOU may want. I chose the Contour due to it’s small compact size and shape. I wasn’t to excited about the square GoPro. I also like the idea that the Contour would allow me to use my Apple devices as viewable LCD screens via the Bluetooth connections. The downside to the Contour is that if you don’t have an Apple or Android device you have to basically guess at what the camera is seeing since there is no built in viewfinder. The Delkin does have a a built in screen and the GoPro you can order one as an option, but neither of these other devices has the quality or form factor I wanted so I settled on the ContourGPS. So there you go, those are just a couple of things to chew on that delineates the three different models I’ve looked into.
The question that came up on Facebook was, “what is a Contour GPS camera, and how does it work with an iPad?” The iPad part I explained above but the “What” part is more of a question of, “why”? So here’s how I plan to use this camera in the future.
If you take a look at the ContourGPS web site you notice that they highlight video from vantage points we don’t typically see. Many of the videos where shot from what is known in the video world as POV or (Point of View) of the person shooting the video. Below is a very nice introduction to the ContourGPS by NETWORKWOLRD that gives you an idea of POV shooting.
Along with the HD camera you get software that allows you to work with the movies you produce. They call it SorryTeller and it gives you a fairly nice video editing setup that has easy options for uploading your video to Youtube, Facebook etc. However, I personally use Apple’s IMovie. IMovie is very easy to use, has tons of options for special effects and is also user friendly when it comes to uploading movies to several different places on the web.
How do I plan to use this camera you ask? Well I’m not completely sure yet. I do know that it will be a great option for hard to access locations that I’m sure to run into while shooting for the Arctic Documentary Project. I can see attaching this to the hull of a ship, maybe the tallest mast of a sailboat, on a remote controlled vehicle, on a helicopter, airplane to name just a few. Time will tell but the options are limitless.
The Contour GPS had numerous accessories and the one I picked up when I ordered the camera was the underwater housing. This housing is hard to believe due to the incredibly low price of $39.00. Compare that to the underwater housing I bought for my D2X several years ago that cost well over $6000.00. I realize the Contour and D2X housings are two different animals but for doing underwater video work the Contour GPS housing is a fantastic option. Other add ons for the Contour include the Rotating Flat Surface Mount, XL Bike Mount, Headband Mount, Vented Helmet Mount, Rollbar Mount, Suction Cup Mount, Goggle Strap Mount, Surf-Wake Mount, and the list goes on and on. You get the idea. You can stick this thing just about anywhere. Hope this explains the why that my friend Joel brought up on Facebook. If you have any further questions just let me know.
Tags: ADP, arctic documentary project, ContourGPS, making movies, remote camera, video
Posted in Equipment Reviews, News Worthy, The Arctic Documentary Project | No Comments »
Last night Polar Bears International hosted Dr. Ian Stirling at the Fairmont Hotel in Winnipeg, Manitoba where Dr. Stirling signed his newest book about polar bears. His presentation discussed hs prediction that Manitoba polar bears are doomed due to the warming climate and that other polar bears are equally at risk if we don’t do something to reduce our production of CO2 emissions that are the cause of dramatic increases in global temperatures.
Read the entire story in the Winnipeg Free Press
View photos of last nights Book Signing Event with Dr. Ian Stirling
Tags: ADP, arctic documentary project, starvation, starve, starving
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Tonight was the official launch of the Arctic Documentary Project here in Winnipeg, Manitoba. It’s been a long time coming, something I’ve been working on unofficially for many years. It wasn’t until I was inspired by a good friend that offered a substantial donation that I realized I really needed to get this officially organized and officially launched. So here it is. You can click on the image and you will be able to review the ADP promotional booklet. Let us know what you think. It’s a work in progress but it really is officially off the ground.
Tags: ADP, animals, arctic, arctic documentary project, bears, climate change, global warming, inuit, north, photography, polar bear, science
Posted in Conservation & Education, News Worthy, The Arctic Documentary Project | 2 Comments »
We’re in the process of designing a logo for the Arctic Documentary Project that I’m working on with Polar Bears International. We have numerous options that we would love to get your opinion on. Below is a sample of what has been designed so far. Click on the image below to go to LogoGuruDesign web site to voice your opinion in their official format or click the same image, take a look at each option, then find the number in the upper right corner of each design and send us an email or post your opinion on our Daniel J. Cox/Natural Exposures Fan Page. We need all suggestions by Wednesday, October 12, 2011. I realize this is short notice but we’re really hoping to get a ton of feedback. We want to make sure the general public gets a chance to add their voice to the decision. Thanks and please tell your friends on Facebook or send them to this blog page. We’re very grateful for your help.
Posted in News Worthy, The Arctic Documentary Project | No Comments »
After spending much of August searching for polar bears on ice near the archipelago of Svalbard, I’m not surprised by the latest headline on Polar Bears International’s most current electronic newsletter. The headline reads Historic Sea Ice Losses, Polar Bear Encounters.
During our nearly five week expedition looking for polar bears, and all other creatures of the arctic, we found no sea ice to photograph the bears the bears on. We did find bits and pieces of ice berg chunks that had broken off from the glaciers on shore but nothing even remotely close to the ice pack. Our guide said the ice pack was typically 18-20 miles off shore from the north end of Svalbard but this summer it was nearly eighty miles off shore. Needless to say it wasfor us but even worse for polar bears. Take a read of PBI’s electronic newsletter and find out more about the historic loss of sea ice and what you can do to help polar bears. Click on the link above or the image below to be taken to PBI’s newsletter.
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The image below was first run as part of my final post for our Arctic Documentary Project in Svalbard/Spitsbergen, Norway. It’s kind of buried in the main blog so I though I would pull this out for easier reading. The key elements I used to create this image include the Nikon D7000, Nikon SB900 wireless flash, Aperture software and Nik Viveza that was used as a plugin within Aperture.
Tags: ADP, Aperture, camera tips, daniel cox, Daniel J Cox, flash, flash photography, Nik Software, Nik Viveza, Nikon D7000, Nikon SB900, photo tips, post-processing, UPoint Technology, workflow
Posted in Conservation & Education, Equipment Reviews, News Worthy, Photo Tour, The Arctic Documentary Project | 2 Comments »
August 10, Danskøya Island 37F
This morning is cold. Most definitely the coolest we’ve experienced. Danskøya Island is on the northwest part of the archipelago and is on the edge of better polar bear habitat. The ice is nearly 80 miles offshore, so any bears that are stranded on the Islands of Svalbard migrate towards the top getting as close to the ice pack as possible. Mark tells me that, “typically the ice is 15-20 miles offshore but this year is unusual.” Surprising how often I keep hearing something similar to “this year is unusual” from people that work in the arctic. That’s been the description for hotter than normal temperatures and the varying climatic changes they’ve caused. Equally amazing is that I first started hearing people talk about the “unusual year” over ten years ago. My wife Tanya is stepping in here to describe our morning and the rest of the day as we head further north and east.

A Polar Bear wanders the snow-covered rocks in Holmiabukta, Svalbard, Norway. Nikon D7000, 200-400mm lens
Tags: ADP. Arctic Documentary Project, adventure, American Polar Society, animal pictures, archipelago, arctic, arctic documentary project, bears, climate change, culture, daniel cox, Daniel J Cox, Danskøya Island, glacier, global warming, Harbor Seal, history, ice, iceberg, kittiwake, Kongsfjorden, Liefdefjorden, lowepro, nature, New London, Nik Software, nikon, norway, Outdoor Photographer, PBI, photo gear, photo tips, photo tour, photo trip, photo workshops, polar bear, polar bear behavior, Polar Bears International, Rock Ptarmigan, sailing, seagull, svalbard, Virgohamna, wildlife, wildlife behavior, wildlife photography, Woodfjorden
Posted in Conservation & Education, Culture, Equipment Reviews, News Worthy, Photo Tour, The Arctic Documentary Project | 1 Comment »
August 8, 2011, Cloudy and 43F
Tanya and I spent the past three days in Lonyearbyen in a small, very European, apartment, catching up on business matters, writing and a little rest before our next group of guests arrived.
The first trip went really well, but every adventure to the field is new, so it’s always in your mind that the the next can be even better. Our boat is full again, housing our eight invited photo enthusiasts that all arrived on schedule. Jeanne, one of our dear and long-time friends, and a retired, 30-year 757 pilot for United Airlines, arrived in Longyearbyen minus her luggage. True to form she had a huge smile on her face and lots of great stories about the turmoil she faced trying to explain to the “lost luggage department” where they needed to deliver her bags once they found them. The story Jeanne described, as usual, was hilarious with the central theme pivoting on the idea that the agent just could not get the concept that the boat she was scheduled to board was something smaller than the typical 1500 passenger cruise ship. And, unlike the cruise ships, there was no port she would be visiting that had an SAS office she could check in with. Suffice it to say, it’s people like Jeanne who take a very bad situation and turn it into a comedy routine, that makes this job so worthwhile. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Aavatsmarkbreen Bay, ADP. Arctic Documentary Project, adventure, archipelago, arctic, arctic documentary project, arctic tern, bears, bird nesting, bird photography, bird watching, camera tips, climate change, daniel cox, Daniel J Cox, Danskaya, glacier, global warming, ice, Isfjorden, Longyearbyen, nature, nikon, Northern Fulmar, norway, photo tips, photo tour, photo trip, photo workshops, polar bear, svalbard, wildlife, wildlife photography
Posted in Conservation & Education, News Worthy, Photo Tour, The Arctic Documentary Project | 4 Comments »
July 27 – Clear skies, Temp Around 45F
The weather continues bright and sunny. For two days now we’ve had skies with virtually no clouds. Some wind yesterday afternoon but amazingly if it weren’t for the desolate landscape, void of vegetation, and cool temps, I would swear we were cruising the Bahamas. Last night Mark downloaded the ice chart and the pack ice is 80 miles to the north. The past two days we’ve managed to find two separate groups of walrus. The first on Moffen Island, a restricted refuge we’re not allowed to enter. Regulations state that even our ship must remain 300 meters out from shore. Surprisingly, with all the necessary restrictions we had a fairly productive shoot capturing walrus coming and going. We were all thrilled to be taking pictures.
After Moffen we made our way down to Murchisonfjorden and spent the night anchored in a calm bay. The midnight sun cast its long shadows throughout the early hours of the AM. Rising from my bunk and making my way into the galley was painful due to the intense glare off the water. The brilliance sent me scurrying back to my dark, little cabin to retrieve sunglasses before making my way on deck. Unfortunately my mini travel thermometer is no longer working. I’m disappointed not to be able to get an accurate reading of the outside temps. I’ll be getting something a bit more robust for my travels in the future but for now the air temperature feels something close to 45F. It’s a guess but enough time in the outdoors makes it relatively accurate.
We finally get moving around 9:30am. Mornings are always difficult in the far north since it’s all too easy to be out hours on end in the the glorious light of the midnight sun. As we slowly make our way out of the waters of Murchisonfjorden we find a pair of walrus seemingly lolly gagging but very possibly feeding in the serene waters of the fjord. We set the engine to neutral and drifted slowly, hoping they might get curious and come visit. No such luck. After 20-30 minutes we decide to slowly motor off towards the mouth of the fjord.
Tags: ADP. Arctic Documentary Project, adventure, animal pictures, archipelago, arctic, arctic documentary project, bearded seal, bears, climate change, cub, daniel cox, Daniel J Cox, global warming, Hornbaekbukta Bay, ice, Little Auk, Minke Whale, mother and cub, nature, nikon, norway, photo tour, photo trip, photo workshops, polar bear, polar bear behavior, svalbard, The Sysselman, walrus, wildlife, wildlife behavior, wildlife photography
Posted in News Worthy, Photo Tour, The Arctic Documentary Project | 2 Comments »
July 23, 2012
Two years ago on my first trip to Svalbard we found a dead whale, floating in the waters of Holmiabukta. It was partially beached, the underside of its large, bloated carcass coming aground on the bottom of the fjord, 50 feet or more from the gray, rocky shoreline recently void of ice. During our original visit we spent several days working the nearly dozen or so bears that were feasting on the Cetaceation’s rotting flesh. It was a surreal site, sometimes four polar bears distributed its length, standing their ground, their teeth tearing at the hide of the ghastly, bloated corpse. A young ice bear, maybe 3-4 years in age, gorged itself as a mother and two cubs came swimming from shore. The moment she boarded the bobbing smorgasbord of blubber, skin and barnacles, the feasting young bruin came sprinting down the carcass length, diving off the other end, leaping into the water in a full race horse gallop. Gulls scattered in every direction lifting off to hang in the gusting winds blowing from the glacier. There in the midst of darkest death was the angelic like wings of an Ivory Gull as purely white as its name described, a bird of such beauty in this scene of death. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: ADP, animal pictures, arctic, arctic documentary project, bears, daniel cox, Daniel J Cox, education, global warming, humpback whale, ice, ivory gull, nature, nikon, norway, photo tour, photo trip, photo workshops, polar bear, svalbard, wildlife, wildlife behavior
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July 20, 2011
Our trip from Montana was uneventful – though flying anymore I find literally painful. When Tanya and I travel overseas we always plan to arrive at least a day early, ideally two or even three. Acclimating to a new time zone slowly can make all the difference on the first part of any adventure. In today’s world we are all very busy, and for most it’s exceptionally difficult to take even one more day away from work, but we suggest to all our guests to try and come early. The first day of your adventure is invariably more enjoyable if you can spare the time.
We broke our trip up by staying one night in Oslo. Our hotel was a Best Western not far from where we landed and it was typically European with very small rooms but an equally comfortable bed. The night passed quickly, never really getting dark. Around 10:00am we caught the well-organized, pleasant and clean bus to the airport.
PHOTO TIP
Keeping a camera close has always been the answer to great pictures. It’s never been easer to be prepared for that special image that presents itself. I carry a small body with a minimum of 28mm lens to record special moments that I find while traveling. There are so many great options to choose from today such as Nikon advanced Coolpix 5700. The photo of this unique looking, early European design car caught my eye while waiting for the bus to the airport. I took out my small, go anywhere camera and shot these pictures.
Tags: ADP, arctic documentary project, nikon, PBI, Polar Bears International
Posted in Culture, News Worthy, Photo Tour, The Arctic Documentary Project | 2 Comments »
July 18, 2011
Yesterday I received a note on Facebook from a friend of mine in South Africa. He saw the picture I posted of Tanya with all our bags and asked if there was any camera gear inside. We’ve traveled together so his comment was just a friendly poke. This business of taking pictures creates a lot of baggage. His comment made me think that I should give some details on all that I’ve brought for our shoot in Svalbard, Norway.
First of all when Tanya and I travel together and particularly when we leave North America I almost always use the Lowepro Roller bags. Since there are two of us we can often take more on board the aircraft than I can when traveling alone. If I am traveling solo I will often use a Lowerpro backpack of some sort placed within a large, Pelican, hard sided case and checked as luggage. I like the Pro Roller option the best since obviously I can keep my eye on my gear.
The Pro roller I currently us is the Pro Roller X200. Not the largest they make in the Pro Roller series but not the smallest either. What’s particularly interesting about this case is it’s semi-transformer personality. It’s a bit large for smaller planes overhead bins but with a quick zip of the inner case, you can reduce it’s size substantially. By zipping out the inside protective enclosure you remove the hard sided outer shell. On the back side of the inner case are backpack straps that make it easy to sling over your shoulders. More than once I’ve had the folks at the gate suggest my rolling strong box was too large for aircraft carryon. Quickly I can zip out the inside and hand them the outer shell, eliminating the concern. The inside fits nicely in virtually all aircraft bins I’ve ever needed access to.
Tags: Lowepro X200, nikon, photo equipment, photography, Pro Roller, travel
Posted in Equipment Reviews, News Worthy, The Arctic Documentary Project | 2 Comments »
June 10, 2011
My last trip to Svalbard was almost two years ago. Soon I will be there again and this blog post is the beginning of my report from what is an incredible land of ice, water, wildlife and sky. If you’re interested you can read about my last Trip to this amazing wilderness on our Blog/Corkboard.
This time my wife Tanya is accompanying me. We’ve incorporated this trip into our Invitational Photo Tours schedule so we’ll be meeting numerous guests who’ve become friends and a few new faces that have never traveled with us before. You can find out more about the details of our cruise in the spectacular waters of Norway by visiting our Invitational Photo Tours web page. Here you will find all the details and if you like you can even signup for the same adventure yourself for next year. Yep, we’ll be doing it all again in 2012.
Tags: nikon
Posted in Conservation & Education, News Worthy, The Arctic Documentary Project | 1 Comment »
Recently my work in both the arctic and antarctic was featured in several newspaper articles. The inspiration for this interest by the media came from the heart wrenching video I shot this past fall of the dying polar bear cubs. Though most of my work in the antarctic was done a number of years ago it was a pleasure to have an interest in many images that have never been published before. You can see the different articles for yourself by following the links below.
| All creatures: Pole to Pole: Daniel J Cox… Pole to pole: Daniel J Cox photographs Arctic polar bears and penguins in Antarctica.
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| Pole to pole: Daniel J Cox photographs
Pole to pole: Daniel J Cox photographs Arctic. Daniel J Cox photographs Arctic polar bears and penguins in Antarctica. Popular Videos (5) Popular Stories …
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| Daniel J. Cox The spectacular sights of Antarctic & Arctic caught by photographer Daniel J. Cox. Scores of Emperor penguins in an act of communal grief …www.whatsonsanya.com/tag-Daniel%20J.%20Cox.html |
| Pole to pole: Daniel J Cox photographs Arctic… – Wildlife … Pole to pole: Daniel J Cox photographs Arctic polar bears and penguins in Antarctica … friendfeed.com/…/pole-to-daniel-j-cox-photographs-arctic-pol…
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| Pole to pole: Daniel J Cox photographs Arctic polar bears and … Pole to pole: Daniel J Cox photographs Arctic polar bears and penguins in Antarctica. environmental-sustainability.soup.io/…/Pole-to-pole-Daniel-J-… |
Tags: antarctica, cold, penguins, photogrpahy, pole to pole, wildlife
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Dr. Steven C. Amstrup, senior scientist with Polar Bears International, addresses the question of the Dying Cub Video. He also discusses the paper he recently published in the prestigious journal, Nature, which offers hope for polar bears if we significantly reduce carbon emissions.
There are many unknowns about the dying cub, but the behavior is consistent with starvation. The mother bear is obviously very, very thin and probably had not been lactating for some time. And, greater nutritional stress is something that we already have observed quantitatively (as opposed to qualitatively, as in this video) in the long-term data on the Western Hudson Bay bears.
It is important to emphasize, that when biologists report findings—as they have with the Western Hudson Bay population—that survival rate of young is reduced, what that means is that mortality has increased. And starvation is a principal mechanism of increased mortality in polar bears. With ever-longer ice-free periods, we will see ever-increasing rates of starvation. I think that most in the media and public, and policy makers, don’t really understand that when we speak of lowered survival in scientific papers, what we really are referring to is starvation. This video is a painful reminder of what declining survival means, and of what our greenhouse gas emissions are doing to polar bears and other wildlife dependent upon cold conditions.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Our paper in Nature offers hope for polar bears if we can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and not let them rise beyond 450 ppm. It disproves the idea of an irreversible tipping beyond which arctic sea ice can’t recover.
Some have questioned whether the 450ppm scenario on which we focused is not really possible to achieve.
It surely is an aggressive scenario and would take considerable political will and leadership. The criticism has been stated in the context of the lack of progress, in the Cancun climate change, etc., toward even more modest changes.
When such comments come up, it is important not to confuse physical possibility with political plausibility. There has been an incredible amount of material written on this and other reduction scenarios. Those documents describe in great detail how we would have to change our economy and society, but they do not describe anything that is not physically possible.
One of my co-authors, Eric DeWeaver of the National Science Foundation, spoke with Leon Clark, lead author on the main Climate Change Science Program document, regarding this scenario. Clark stated that he felt it still was physically possible to achieve, although certainly challenging politically.
We chose this scenario, which allows CO2 to rise to 450ppm by the end of the century, for a variety of reasons. One of those was the fact that it is very well documented and that the pathways for achieving it have been discussed extensively in the literature. Also, it is consistent with the goal of keeping temperature rise below 2 C, which is a target many have suggested is necessary to prevent significant anthropogenic interference with the climate.
James Hansen, in fact has argued that 450ppm is too high and we need to get back town to 350ppm. There is debate about Hansen’s concept. But perhaps the biggest limitation in discussions about achieving 350 is that we already are beyond that. So, focusing too much on 350 risks people feeling there is nothing they can do. The message of our paper is HOPE—that there is something we can do. So, I am not inclined to deal much with 350 until we have made it well along the way to achieve 450. Once we have demonstrated we can do that, then we can work our way down to 350. But that is a bit beside my current point: that point is not to confuse physical achievability with political plausibility.
Even more important, is that this criticism loses sight of one of the main results of our paper. We did not see evidence of irreversible thresholds in our model outcomes—sea-ice habitat features smoothly declined as temperatures rose. And even after modeled rapid ice-loss events, we showed recovery could occur if GHG concentrations were lowered. Therefore, the biggest news is the simple message that conserving polar bears is a matter of minimizing temperature rise. This is important because the smooth relationship between temperature and sea ice habitat decline means that if we strive for really aggressive mitigation but don’t quite make it, or if we overshoot before getting down to our target, we still will have preserved more sea ice and more bears. The message is that to save polar bears we need to lower temperature rise and that by doing so we will have gone a long way toward saving the climate in which humans, and the rest of life currently residing on earth, have flourished.
We should not allow ourselves, therefore, to become embroiled in an argument about taking significant steps versus taking no steps at all. Rather we need to keep the focus on the need to act strongly and quickly and focus on reducing temperature rise as much as is humanly possible.
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